An In-Depth Assessment of the Drivers Changing China’s Crop Production Using an LMDI Decomposition Approach

Over the last decades, growing crop production across China has had far-reaching consequences for both environment and human welfare. One of emerging questions is “how to meet food demand in China?” In essence, consensus that best way forward would be increase yield rather than further extend current cropland area. However, assessing progress challenging as it driven by multiple factors. To date, there are no studies determine how factors affect increase, considering intensive farming (using cropping index) large-scale mean parcel size number parcels). Using Logarithmic-Mean-Divisia-Index (LMDI) decomposition method combined with statistical data land cover (GlobeLand30), we assess contribution changes dynamics at national county scale. Despite a negative from MPS (mean size, ), increased due positive contributions (), MCI (multiple index, well NP (number parcels, ). This allowed demand. We find large differences regions persist over time. For most counties, consequence improved yields. North Plain, another important factor leading improvement. On other hand, witnessing decrease (e.g., southeast coastal area China) were characterized remarkable MCI. Our detailed analyses provide accurate estimates therefore can guide policymakers addressing security issues. Specifically, besides stabilizing maintaining total NP, advantageous through consolidation financial assistance transfer advanced agricultural infrastructure.